Were We There Yet ? Solar Minimum

[VK2ZRH]

Has the (spot) drought ended ? Wait for it . . . wait for it . . .

Active Region 1025 turned up "late" on 31 August. Not yet a spot, or spot group.

Here's an extract from the Solar Influences Data Center bulletin for 1 September:

SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 01 Sep 2009, 1124UT
A new active region, NOAA AR 1025 appeared on Aug. 31st approximately at 40E 20N.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN: 008, BASED ON 07 STATIONS.
FOR 31 Aug 2009 ~ ESTIMATED ISN: 000, BASED ON 32 STATIONS.

Just for backup (to be sure, to be sure . . . , Eccles), here's the Big Bear Solar Observatory's take on the events:

BBSO Solar Activity Report 01-SEP-2009 15:21:47 UT
A new region formed late yesterday. The region is small and from the new cycle.

Here's the Big Bear image:

Big Bear Solar magnetogram 2Sep09.gif

We have to await confirmation

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH

[VK4CP]

We have to await confirmation

Huh?
Confirmation of what they observed?
Don't they believe their own eyes? !!!!

[VK2ZRH]

You may have noticed that SIDC are the arbiters of "was that a spot?", requiring an assembly of observations from around the world to confirm the "status" of an "active region".

Until enough observers report the same thing, it's "provisional".

If it disappears in half a day, maybe it wasn't there long enough to gain true spot "status".

Such is the stuff of solar science

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH

[vk4abw]

We have to await confirmation

Huh?
Confirmation of what they observed?
Don't they believe their own eyes? !!!!

You know how it goes Adam.....check, recheck, verify, reverify, counter check, ask your 3rd removed cousin for his opinion......then publish it with clauses stating that your pretty sure but just want 1 more opinion on it

so...i guess my guess for first spot still stands

[VK2ZRH]

So the run of spotless days ended late on 31 August, which makes Barry VK3BJM the winner of the "guess when it will end" bet

Active region 1025 appeared late on 31 August and fizzled out the next day. The daily SSN for 31/8 and 1/9 was assigned 12 (one group, two spots).

Barry reckoned 4 September.

At 52 spotless days in a row, the July-August 2009 period just sneaks into 4th place in the great runs of spotless days since 1849 league table, pushing out 17 March to 4 May 1902. See: http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spot ... tless.html

Anyone willing to bet if we'll beat this run of spotless days some time in the next, say 12 months?

You don't have to guess how many spotless days (it may only be 53, after all !), just that you reckon there'll be a longer run

We live in interesting times [ see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_you_li ... ting_times ]

Posted in the interests of maintaining interest.

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH

[VK2ZRH]

Another week, another bunch of zeros.

Daily sunspot numbers for 3rd September through 9th September were zero, every day. I dunno how they work this out, but the mean for the week was zero.

Solar study satellites report no emerging sunspots on the far side of the sun and that pesky "active region no. 11025" that appeared over 31st August - 1st September has rolled around to our side again - and nuthin's doin'.

As the Pope reportedly asked of Michaelangelo, who was high on the scaffolds in the Sistine Chapel at the time, "When will you make an end?"

In the Aussie spirit of betting on anything, who's willing to wager on the date this run of zeros will come to an end.

Posted in the interests of maintaining interest.

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH

[VK2DAG]

Hello do we have a spot coming around? Satellite mission called Stereo and NASA has a website for it.

http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Matt.

[VK4EKA]

It is a rather broad weak feature.
Lets see how it developes.

[VK2ZRH]

Maybe it'll be like Active Region 11025 . . . here today (31st August), gone tomorrow (1 September) !

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH

[vk3oe]

SSN=27, SF=75, and the winner is......

Andrew VK3OE

[VK2ZRH]

10.7cm Flux at 77. SSN at 13. [Source: IPS]

Sound the trumpets! Ring the bells ! (Or, is that: Bell the strumpets ! . . uh, no).

Feed the dog. Put out the cat. Make up the large pot of drip coffee.

Hang that DO NOT DISTURB sign you souvenired from the Holiday Inn on the shack door.

Swing the beams northward. Sit by the rig. Send CQs at regular intervals.

ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN !

Make sure the 6m rig is warmed up and ready to roll

Posted in the interests of activity.

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH

BTW: Today, I learned just what Woody Guthrie was on about when he wrote "Dust Pneumony Blues"

[VK2ZRH]

WAS THIS THE UPTICK WE'RE AFTER - OR JUST A PREMATURE ERUCTATION*

Active solar region 1026 (S29E57) rotated into view on 22 September 2009: a small, Cycle 24 sunspot group, spotted earlier by one of the STEREO satellites.

Then Region 1027 (N24E31) emerged the same day: another small, Cycle 24 sunspot group.

They produced a minor flurry of flare activity and mid-latitude geomagnetic restlessness.

The 10.7cm flux shot up to 76-77 (from 69 !) for three days, and then fell back to 70. The sunspot number hit 26, then 32 then sagged to 24, 14 and 11. Sigh.

Both 1026 and 1027 are declining as the days go on.

Posted in the interests of maintaining interest.

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH
* E-ruck-tayshun - a belch !

[vk3py]

There are sufficient people attempting to predict the timing and magnitudes of solar maxima and minima that whatever the outcome, somebody will have got close, after the event. My pet theory is that they're all trying to predict what is essentially a chaotic phenomenon, and as such, unpredictable (except, of course, in hindsight - someone will have inevitably been nearly right!).

We'd all like to think that since the solar acivity follows a loosely cyclical behaviour, its peaks and troughs must therefore be predictable, if only we could crack the code. But what if it's chaotic?

Chas
VK3PY

[VK2ZRH]

Hi Chas,

We'd all like to think that since the solar acivity follows a loosely cyclical behaviour, its peaks and troughs must therefore be predictable, if only we could crack the code. But what if it's chaotic?

Looks like a duck. Waddles like a duck. Smells like a duck. Quacks like a duck. Maybe it's a grasshopper ?

In all the talks I've given over the past whatever years about the solar cycle, there's one thing I keep telling audiences: EVERY ONE IS DIFFERENT !

The cycle is recognisably a cycle. The spots increase. They reach a maximum number. Then they decline and reach a minimum. The amplitude (number of spots/spot groups), date (year/months) and duration (at the 90 percentile) of the maximum varies; sometimes the max. is a single one, sometimes its a double hump (like camels !). The amplitude, date and duration of the minimum varies; sometimes a single, sometimes multiples. Every characteristic of the cycles varies - even the "cycles of cycles" (eg. the Gleissberg cycle).

The cycle has noisy characteristics - very noisy characteristics. Even chaotically noisy characteristics. If I didn't know better, I'd say Heisenberg had a hand in it.

73, Roger Harrison VK2ZRH

[VK6OX]

Aaah...the Eyes of Heisenberg!! (now who wrote that??)

.....to return to the here and now, however, I think maybe you've succinctly summed up the situation, Roger! Sol G3 is, after all said and done, a variable star, and it will do what it wants to, regardless of what we wish or think it should be doing! The aforementioned is not in any way meant to belittle or otherwise "poo-poo" folks' serious attempts to analyse our Sun's procession thru its middle age.

We are all but a "Mote in God's Eye"!! (Now who wrote that!!)

I am neither a soothsayer nor an expert....just an avid 6m operator who enjoys the "magic", moreso for not trying to analyse overmuch its appeal and excitement.

Cheers
Andy